Lilly discusses new GLP-1

It seems like Lilly's announcement today that they are working on a new GLP-1 compound should be taken more lightly. While this might very well be the next mega blockbuster one day, for now, it's just typical phase 1 research that has a pretty small chance of making it, just given normal pharma research odds. Many are focused on the implications for doctors, patients, Amylin - there aren't really any implications for anyone except that research will continue in this field because early drugs in the class have been so good. But there have been a lot of failures as well - some by Lilly - and we don't feel like Byetta is really even relevant to this research because Lilly came at it relatively late in the game. They brought some very The hard work was done! Given that, we don't know what this drug will look like, only that it'll be a very long time before we see any real results. To wit: the last two years, we have heard that the obesity pipeline at Lilly is "very promising" and we heard that again today - but we've seen no phase 1 or phase 2 data! Today they did allow we might see data next year. We had hoped to hear about a long-acting analog for Lilly, since this is where Sanofi and Novo have really taken so much share - no news on this front. In the meantime, with respect to GLP-1, we suspect, with all due respect, for now, that Lilly needs Amylin a lot more than the reserse. What we really hope is that Lilly is successful with the drive to get Arxxant approved, its retinopathy drug - we're very impressed they are putting up such a fight and hope so that it ends well. Otherwise, whether any company will do ressearch on drugs for micrcovasuclar complications is a real question - why would they!

Comments

[Scott]

Kelly,

I too wondered about Lilly and any development on a long-acting insulin analog. While they still have a large share of the insulin market, Novo Nordisk and Sanofi-Aventis have really chipped away at that franchise in recent years, as Lilly lost the United Healthcare business in late 2005. From an investment standpoint, Lilly's diabetes business seems to be the one business they have the most risk in because they've really not invested as much there as they should have in recent years, so you're 100% right about them needing Amylin more than the other way around!